Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 64.7%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 24, 11:10 UTC1 janv. 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2028?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2100.
- My intention with this market is to provide a way to capture the crux of whether people think RTAP superconductors are technically feasible from questions of rates of technical progress/discovery (but clearly I had to pick some timeline for it to be able to realistically resolve).
