Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète12 avr. 26, 16:45 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Victor Orban run for president position by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Emil O. W. Kierkegaard be allowed back into the US by EOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one Thiel Fellow be deported out of the US by EOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one @_TheResidency fellow be deported out of the US by EOY2028?
Manifold Markets[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsNetherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Viktor Orbán establishes legal residence in the United States or is granted asylum/protected status by the U.S. government at any point between the market's creation and December 31, 2028.
- It resolves to NO if he does not.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the U.S. government, credible international news reporting, or documented legal proceedings confirming his arrival or residency status.
- Viktor Orbán has served as the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010.
- His political stance is often characterized by conservative nationalist policies and has frequently drawn criticism from European Union institutions and international organizations.
