Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
PolitiqueOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète27 avr. 26, 20:31 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Update on the Alex Bores campaign is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
- Republican Party16%
- Volume total
- 25,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 812,4 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.4%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 564 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+1.0pt46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.5%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.3pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 734,4 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.3pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.8pt2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.