Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
RégulationOne-OffTechChine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.2%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 20:22 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In the US, will there be binding legislation or an executive order explicitly addressing AI risks by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
Manifold MarketsChina's primary aluminium capacity exceeds 30% benchmark energy efficiency by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Georgia regulators approve 4 more gigawatts of generating capacity?
KalshiWill any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) advanced packaging capacity is no longer the binding constraint on advanced AI accelerator production, per publicly accessible evidence.
- Public evidence sources accepted for resolution:
- TSMC public statement (earnings call transcript on SEC EDGAR equivalent / Taiwan Stock Exchange filings, or company press release) indicating CoWoS capacity meets or exceeds customer demand
- NVIDIA, AMD, or other major customer public statement indicating CoWoS capacity is no longer their bottleneck
- Public research reports from Epoch AI, CSET, or government statistical agencies on advanced-packaging supply
- The criterion is "no longer binding" — i.e., the marginal additional unit of CoWoS capacity does not produce a meaningful increase in available AI accelerator units.
