Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 65.3%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
17 sept. 26, 04:52 UTC30 avr. 27, 04:51 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWill Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say in September?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his Rose Garden dinner?
KalshiRègles
Les critères de résolution ne sont pas encore disponibles pour ce marché. Cette section sera remplie lors des prochains rafraîchissements une fois les règles de la source enregistrées.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Volume total
- 18,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 551,6 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Volume total
- 27,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 549,5 k €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 462,4 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 12,9 M €
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? doit être résolu le 30 avril 2027.