Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.4%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 13:30 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iran Nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards:
- [image]Any use of nuclear weapons in Iran by the US military while Trump is president will result in this market being resolved as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Trump's rhetoric has had many commentators wondering if use of nuclear weapons is in the cards: