Will Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
2.8 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientSportCricketGéopolitiquePolitique américaine1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.3%+2.8pt
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+45.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète2 nov. 26, 09:43 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump nuke Iran before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump nuke Iran before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIran Nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.
- This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify.
- The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.
