Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète28 févr. 26, 20:16 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
will trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump be impeached and removed from office during his second term?
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources.
- The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.
- Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison.
- A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour will trump be assasinated in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand will trump be assasinated in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- will trump be assasinated in 2026 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment will trump be assasinated in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria