Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 64%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète25 nov. 23, 16:08 UTC2 févr. 29, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be electric passenger helicopters with >100 miles range before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Discord’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $20 Billion?
MyriadRègles
Battery-powered shipping is close to being economically sensible, depending on things like battery prices and how the price of pollution is accounted.
- However, it's still a massive engineering challenge.
- Will there be at least one battery-powered electric cargo ship, of at least 500 TEU capacity, making routine commercial voyages of at least 1000 km length, before 2029?
- If the ship has both battery-electric and fuel-based (combustion or fuel cell) power systems, it will be counted if the nominal battery-only range exceeds 1000 km and it is making routine voyages of at least 1000 km.
