Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 59.1%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 minutes
27 sept. 26, 13:06 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).
Manifold MarketsWill the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow much will global AI inference token usage grow from 2029 to 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that, at some point during 2027, demand for frontier-scale AI inference materially exceeds available compute capacity at prevailing prices.
- Strong evidence means either (A) direct quantitative evidence of a shortfall or (B) multiple observable signs of compute scarcity.
- A. Direct quantitative evidence
- This criterion is met if Epoch AI or another credible analysis estimates that frontier inference demand is equal to or greater than available inference capacity, using reasonably comparable assumptions about model size, context length, and token generation speed.
- An Epoch-style estimate showing a demand/capacity ratio ≥1.0 for a frontier model under roughly 25k:1k or 128k:1k input token workloads, while maintaining about 35 output tokens/second per user, is sufficient.
- For context, Epoch estimated Q4 2025 global Blackwell capacity at roughly 20B output tok/s at 8k context, 6B at 25k, and 0.5B at 128k.
