Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 59.2%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète12 déc. 23, 05:26 UTC2 sept. 30, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a movie or TV show adaptation of the comic Bone be released before 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill wizards of the coast make/produce a magic: the gathering movie/Tv show by 2035?
Manifold Markets#1 Searched TV Show on Google 2026?
PolymarketWill a Skibidi Toilet TV show release at least one episode before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsVictoria's Secret Fashion Show: Fantasy Bra wearer in 2026
KalshiWho will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?
KalshiRègles
Either fiction, biographical, or documentary.
- So for instance, a Klaus Teuber biopic or a Catan-themed gameshow would count.
- If it's a movie it has to be feature length though.
- Leaked tv pilots don't count as tv shows.
- But they might count as feature films if they're long enough.
- Edit: If it is a documentary it has to be either approved by Teuber's family, the game's publisher, or critically acclaimed.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 342,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 91,2 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 182,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 90,8 k €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 264,6 k €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 84,3 k €
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- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? doit être résolu le 2 septembre 2030.
- Comment Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Either fiction, biographical, or documentary.