Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83.7%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète29 déc. 23, 16:33 UTC1 mars 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Uranus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2050.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Uranus must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61
- @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c
- @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-0a7d585d5f97
Marchés ouverts
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.4pt9%
- Google-0.7pt2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 89,7 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Volume total
- 101,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.5pt16.7%
- Google+0.5pt7.8%
+18 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.6pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,5 k €
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2050? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2050.
- Comment Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Uranus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2050.