Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
InflationOne-OffMacro & Economy13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.8%
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète7 août 23, 22:21 UTC2 janv. 40, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2035?
Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiPPI YoY in August
KalshiUS electricity price in August
KalshiRègles
Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period.
- When taken at a global scale, this is known as the Gross World Product (GWP).
- Historically, GWP growth has been relatively steady, with notable fluctuations due to global events.
- The question posed is whether there will be a substantial, unprecedented growth in GWP – specifically, if GWP during any prior to 2040 will exceed 130% of the highest GWP recorded in any previous year.
- Before 2040, will the Gross World Product (GWP) for any single year exceed 130% of the maximum GWP recorded for any year prior to that?
- Resolution Criteria:
Marchés ouverts
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5 k €
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period.