Will the US pass a federal law with binding safety requirements for frontier AI models before the end of 2027?
One-OffRégulationIAPolitique américaine1a
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2
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 32 minutes
30 oct. 26, 16:25 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a national law be in force in the US imposing safety requirements on the training/deployment of AI models?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Congress pass, and the President sign, a binding frontier-AI law before 2027?
FutuurWill 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, a US federal law is signed that imposes binding requirements (testing, reporting, licensing or liability) specifically on developers of frontier or general-purpose AI models.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, state laws and laws that only fund research or create advisory bodies do not count.
- Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case.
- Its 2027 worst-case list included "Hearings are held, nothing passes; lobbying money beats public concern." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored.
- The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
- [link preview]
