Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
One-OffTechPolitiqueRégulation2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 87.9%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard28 avr. 23, 13:54 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 mandating information security protections (including cyber, physical, and personnel security) for frontier AI models.
- These security measures should be in place during model training to limit unintended proliferation of dangerous models.
- Frontier AI models are those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
