Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleFully fair 65%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète8 nov. 24, 03:42 UTC1 janv. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsThe 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsWill the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRègles
This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.
