Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleFully fair 65%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète8 nov. 24, 03:42 UTC1 janv. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Free & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
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PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volume total
- 606,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 721 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 411,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Fully fair à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.