Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 61.2%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète20 oct. 24, 11:02 UTC21 janv. 29, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
LimitlessWill Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketRègles
Will resolve based off of Wikipedia determination of election winner, if unclear due to electoral college tie or lack of electoral college majority it will resolve based on whoever is inaugurated after the 2028 presidential election
- In the rare likelihood that the 2028 is not a clear "democrats vs republicans" eg. the GOP splits into a trump faction and non trump faction, I'll resolve according to the endorsement of the previous president (meaning if trump wins in 2024 and backs some outside candidate in the 2028 general election that doesn't carry the GOP tag, for this to resolve to yes the trump backed outsider would need to win)
