Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionAmérique latineEurope4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 65%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 heures
Obsolète17 janv. 26, 00:52 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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Resolution criteria
- As of January 3, 2026, Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces and Vice-president Delcy Rodríguez was installed as acting president, leaving the timing of the next presidential election unclear.
- This market resolves YES if the next presidential election held in Venezuela meets international standards for free and fair elections.
- Resolution will be based on assessments from credible international election observation missions, including the Carter Center, UN Panel of Electoral Experts, and other recognized international observers.
- Key criteria include: transparent vote counting with disaggregated results published by polling station, absence of systematic fraud or irregularities, freedom of candidate registration and campaign activities, absence of widespread voter intimidation or repression, and media access for all candidates.
- Resolution will reference reports from these organizations and statements from major international bodies (EU, OAS, U.S. State Department, etc.).
