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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète1 juil. 22, 19:52 UTC8 nov. 28, 04:59 UTC
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[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by July 2028?
PredictItIn the 2028 presidential election will at least one state assign its electoral votes based on the national popular vote?
Manifold MarketsWill the Libertarian Party candidate for President receive >1.5% popular vote in the 2028 US Election?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2028 popular vote margin of victory?
KalshiRègles
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome.
- As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia.
- These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force.
- (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact )
- On election day 2028, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 81% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election? doit être résolu le 8 novembre 2028.
- Comment How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.