Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)
Bonds & TreasuriesOne-OffIATechEquities3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.1%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète3 août 26, 14:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on any regular trading day from August 4, 2026, through December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the official daily closing price of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at least 15.00% lower than its closing price on August 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Baseline Close ($C_{Aug3}$): The official closing price of the Nasdaq Composite on August 3, 2026.
- Target Price ($T$): $C_{Aug3} \times 0.85$ (rounded to two decimal places).
- Trigger: If the index's closing price on any subsequent trading day within the specified timeframe is less than or equal to $T$.
Marchés ouverts
Bonds & TreasuriesKALSHIHow high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 4.86% or above99%
- 4.88% or above99%
- 4.91% or above99%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25 k €
KALSHIHow high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 5.31% or above99%
- 5.32% or above99%
- 5.34% or above99%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 14,7 k €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHI2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 4.35% or above+21.0pt99%
- 4.37% or above99%
- 4.41% or above99%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+45.5pt100%
- 4.91%+64.0pt94%
- 4.94%+70.0pt93%
+6 résultats de plus
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 4.69% or above99%
- 4.65% or above99%
- 4.71% or above99%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 8,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,5 k €
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- How low will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 10, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria