Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% below its August 3, 2026 close by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26)
Obligations et bons du TrésorOne-OffIATechActions2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.1%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
3 août 26, 14:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on any regular trading day from August 4, 2026, through December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the official daily closing price of the Nasdaq Composite Index is at least 15.00% lower than its closing price on August 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Baseline Close ($C_{Aug3}$): The official closing price of the Nasdaq Composite on August 3, 2026.
- Target Price ($T$): $C_{Aug3} \times 0.85$ (rounded to two decimal places).
- Trigger: If the index's closing price on any subsequent trading day within the specified timeframe is less than or equal to $T$.
