Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:15 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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En retard11 juil. 23, 03:56 UTC1 janv. 28, 05:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
- The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is more likely than not (66%).
- It is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
- This question is about that second sentence, whether the mean over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5℃.
- I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available.
- Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.