Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 04:15 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard12 juil. 25, 18:36 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
Manifold MarketsWhen will serious deployment of Solar Radiation Management (climate intervention) begin?
Manifold MarketsWill a lunar dust shield be created to reduce global warming by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 90 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 92.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I am 80% confident that this has occurred.
- Peer-reviewed studies making this claim will probably be necessary, but not necessarily sufficient.
- The intervention must be intentional (excludes coincidental effects of non-climate policies)
- The temperature reduction need not be expected to be repeated the following year, e.g., if the intervention was temporary.
- Learn more about climate interventions : https://climateinterventions.org/
