Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 94.6%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard2 juil. 24, 16:47 UTC1 févr. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 be greater than 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 be greater than 1.2 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average?
ForecastExWill the average Global Temperature in 2026 be greater than 1.38 C (2.48 F) above the 20th century average?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature in December 2026 be greater than 1.0 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average?
ForecastExAverage global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
FutuurWill the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
- resolves to 50% in case of a tie.
