Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
0
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète31 mars 26, 16:22 UTC30 juin 27, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by June 30, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
KalshiWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
KalshiWill Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if, by June 30, 2027, all Kachin State border crossings have been closed to rare earth trade for 30+ consecutive days due to a breakdown in the KIA-China commercial relationship.
- YES if by June 30, 2027:
- All Kachin border crossings closed to RE trade for 30+ consecutive days
- Closure caused by KIA-China diplomatic/commercial breakdown (not weather/logistics)
- No 30+ day consecutive halt has occurred by June 30, 2027
- Any closures were shorter than 30 days or caused by non-commercial factors
Marchés ouverts
China
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
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- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
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- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by June 30, 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by June 30, 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by June 30, 2027? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by June 30, 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if, by June 30, 2027, all Kachin State border crossings have been closed to rare earth trade for 30+ consecutive days due to a breakdown in the KIA-China commercial relationship.