Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58%
Prévisionnistes
65
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète18 sept. 25, 10:37 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsGerman "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)
Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.
- This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority.
- Tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government.
- Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.
- There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
