Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète31 août 26, 13:19 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Rosalind Franklin rover launch before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the NASA Viper rover land on the moon before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
Description:
- ESA's Rosalind Franklin rover mission (ExoMars) is currently baselined for launch in the September–December 2028 Mars transfer window, using a NASA-procured Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral.
- The program has slipped multiple times before (2018 → 2020 → 2022 → 2028), so this asks whether the current baseline holds.
- This market resolves YES if the Rosalind Franklin spacecraft launches on its way to Mars at any point within the 2028 Mars launch opportunity (i.e., before the window closes).
- This market resolves NO if, before the 2028 window closes, ESA or NASA officially announces the mission has slipped past the 2028 window (e.g., pushed to 2031 or later), or if the mission is cancelled, or if no launch occurs by 2028.
- Resolution source: Official statements from ESA (esa.int) and/or NASA, or a successful launch confirmed via public tracking (e.g., NASA Launch Services Program, SpaceX launch manifest).
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Description: