Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:15 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 août 26, 13:19 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Rosalind Franklin rover launch before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsBy when will two Starships launch within 24h?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Description:
- ESA's Rosalind Franklin rover mission (ExoMars) is currently baselined for launch in the September–December 2028 Mars transfer window, using a NASA-procured Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral.
- The program has slipped multiple times before (2018 → 2020 → 2022 → 2028), so this asks whether the current baseline holds.
- This market resolves YES if the Rosalind Franklin spacecraft launches on its way to Mars at any point within the 2028 Mars launch opportunity (i.e., before the window closes).
- This market resolves NO if, before the 2028 window closes, ESA or NASA officially announces the mission has slipped past the 2028 window (e.g., pushed to 2031 or later), or if the mission is cancelled, or if no launch occurs by 2028.
- Resolution source: Official statements from ESA (esa.int) and/or NASA, or a successful launch confirmed via public tracking (e.g., NASA Launch Services Program, SpaceX launch manifest).
