Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: No (99%)
Résolu: 12 oct. 2026, 14:36
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 13 oct. 2026, 00:28 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes1%
No99%
Gagné
Perdu
Règles
On April 8, 2026, the DC Circuit denied Anthropic's emergency stay request, leaving Anthropic on the Pentagon's supply chain risk list while litigation continues.
- The court will hear the merits of the case in May 2026.
- RESOLVES YES if, on or before 23:59 UTC August 31, 2026, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals issues a ruling on the merits that grants Anthropic substantive relief — meaning the court finds the Pentagon's designation unlawful, arbitrary/capricious, retaliatory, or otherwise must be vacated.
- Partial wins (e.g., remand for further proceedings with instructions favorable to Anthropic) count as YES.
- RESOLVES NO if (a) the DC Circuit rules against Anthropic on the merits, (b) no merits decision is issued by the deadline, or (c) Anthropic withdraws or settles the case.
