Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète20 janv. 25, 00:17 UTC1 févr. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson win the 2028 United States Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Xi Jinping visit the United States?
KalshiRègles
Sometime between January 10, 2029 and January 31, 2029, in whatever timezone I'm in at the time, I will create a poll that ends seven days afterwards that asks the following question:
- Was the 2028 United States presidential election free and fair?
- with the answers:
- and the description:
- Even if your answer is too nuanced for a full yes or no, you are encouraged to select the option that is closest to your opinion.
- If (YES votes) / (YES votes + NO votes) ≥ 0.75, this market will resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 70% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents? doit être résolu le 1 février 2029.
- Comment Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Sometime between January 10, 2029 and January 31, 2029, in whatever timezone I'm in at the time, I will create a poll that ends seven days afterwards that asks the following question: