Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.9%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 24, 05:02 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾
Manifold MarketsTesla Optimus released this year?
KalshiWhat year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
https://twitter.com/tesla_optimus
- Resolution Criteria: The market resolves "Yes" if Tesla’s Optimus Gen-2 robot is available for general sale by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by an official Tesla announcement or product launch.
- If the robot is not available by this date, the market resolves "No."
- Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2026, at 23:59 PST.
- Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For this market to resolve Yes, the Optimus Gen-2 must be in stock and actively shipping to customers.
- A pre-order phase alone does not qualify.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://twitter.com/tesla_optimus