Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.1%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 24, 05:02 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2027?
Manifold MarketsTesla Optimus released this year?
KalshiWill Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾
Manifold MarketsHow many months will elapse between general availability of Level 5 self driving and the first strong AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRègles
https://twitter.com/tesla_optimus
- Resolution Criteria: The market resolves "Yes" if Tesla’s Optimus Gen-2 robot is available for general sale by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by an official Tesla announcement or product launch.
- If the robot is not available by this date, the market resolves "No."
- Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2026, at 23:59 PST.
- Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For this market to resolve Yes, the Optimus Gen-2 must be in stock and actively shipping to customers.
- A pre-order phase alone does not qualify.
