Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67.1%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète11 févr. 26, 03:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by which date?
PolymarketWill SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
Manifold MarketsBefore which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill an Artemis mission launch with a Centaur V upper stage?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully catches Starship's upper stage using the Mechazilla tower's "chopstick" arms on their first attempt.
- An attempted catch is defined as any Starship, once having reached orbit, passing a mission milestone where it commits irreversibly to a deorbit trajectory with the possibility and intent of a catch.
- I.E. a deorbit burn targeting the boca chica launch site.
- Any diversion here after would result in a No resolution.
- (Added 08/26/26)
Marchés ouverts
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria