Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 80.7% au 27 octobre 2026.

Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 80.7%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 heure

En retard

11 sept. 23, 22:35 UTC2 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

For a successful mission Starship needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.

Derivatives of Starship will count as Starship for this market, what counts as a "derivative" of Starship is up to my judgement.
HLS is a derivative of Starship, but only missions which deliver cargo to the surface of the moon count for this market.
This will tentatively stay open until a cargo mission is attempted or it becomes clear that none will actualize; the close date isn't particularly relevant other than as a measure of expected timelines