Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture4mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 58%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète8 févr. 25, 11:42 UTC1 févr. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post So You Want To Make Marginal Progress... is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
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- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.
- Comment Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.