Will September 2026 U.S. payroll growth turn negative in its first revision?
InflationOne-OffMacro et économieÉconomie5j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète29 oct. 26, 04:53 UTC6 nov. 26, 13:25 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
Resolves YES if the first BLS Employment Situation release covering October 2026 reports a negative seasonally adjusted change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from August to September 2026.
- Use September minus August employment in the seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm row of Table B-1 in that release.
- A result below zero resolves YES; zero or higher resolves NO.
- If the narrative and table disagree, Table B-1 controls.
- This concerns September’s first monthly revision, not October’s new payroll estimate.
- Use the release as initially published; subsequent corrections, monthly revisions, and annual benchmark revisions do not count.
