Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 66%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète10 janv. 24, 12:39 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
I'll define major as largest 10 metro areas.
- For self-driving I'll use SAE level 3.
- https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/gallery/cm/content/news/sae-blog/j3016graphic_2021.png
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I'll define major as largest 10 metro areas.