Will Russia and Ukraine agree to stop mutual attacks on energy targets for at least a week by EOY 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineGéopolitiqueRussie / Ukraine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
14 sept. 26, 17:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Ukraine and Russia officially agree to a mutual halt (or moratorium) on military strikes targeting each other's energy and power infrastructure, and this halt successfully lasts for at least 7 consecutive days (one week).
- To satisfy the resolution criteria, the following conditions must be met:
- Agreement: There must be a confirmed bilateral or indirect agreement (e.g., mediated by a third party such as Qatar or the United States) where both the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation agree to halt strikes on energy targets (including electricity grids, power plants, substations, oil refineries, and fuel depots).
- Duration: The mutual pause must be successfully maintained for at least 7 consecutive days starting from the date of the agreement's implementation.
- Verification: Credible international news organizations (such as Reuters, The Financial Times, or Associated Press) or established monitoring groups (such as the Institute for the Study of War) must confirm both the existence of the agreement and the successful 7-day period of no mutual strikes on energy infrastructure.
