Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-OffCommodities2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.6%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 17:53 UTC31 mai 29, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 3.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Rio Tinto. 2024 actual 3.3 Mt (+1% YoY); Kitimat ramp + NZAS full ownership.
- The 3.4 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued post-ramp run-rate; meaningful deviation requires either smelter restarts (Tomago, Bell Bay) or further M&A. Resolution sources (priority order):
- Rio Tinto quarterly production results and annual report https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/financial-news-performance/quarterly-production-results