Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
One-OffPolitique13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.2%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète13 avr. 24, 18:53 UTC1 janv. 40, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will prediction markets be formally blocked in Florida before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill prediction markets be used to allocate UKRI funding before 2040?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRègles
will need to be in a nation, state, municipality etc. with over 1 Million residents
- "formally" meaning it is explicitly part of the political system for policymakers to consult prediction markets (e.g. explicit much like the political system in the US explicitly requires a certain number of votes in the senate for a law to be passed)
- e.g. a central bank deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates can, much like they use macroeconomic indicators, consult prediction markets -- and are explicitly allowed to do so
- It cannot be a pilot program / small-scale test
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 70% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : will need to be in a nation, state, municipality etc. with over 1 Million residents