Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.3%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète3 mai 24, 12:09 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the population of the USA decline in the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. meat consumption decline by 50%+ by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill I find a wife by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will be accepted to join the Fire Department for the September round?
Manifold MarketsWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
PolymarketWill Marriages/Civil Unions with 3+ people be legally recognized in five or more states by January 1st 2029?
Manifold MarketsRègles
According to Pew Research Center, using survey data from April 2023, 62% of Americans own a pet.
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/07/about-half-us-of-pet-owners-say-their-pets-are-as-much-a-part-of-their-family-as-a-human-member/
- When Pew Research surveys this question in 2025 or 2026, will the number decline?
- Fractional percentages will be rounded to the nearest percentage.
- If the percentage of US pet owners is 61% or lower, this question resolves YES; otherwise NO.
- If Pew Research Center does not survey this question in 2025 or 2026, I will instead attempt to use data from the American Pet Products Association.
