Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.3%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète13 févr. 23, 19:48 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will there be a news article about people taking an Optimus robot with them on camping trips?
Manifold MarketsWill I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if an article appears in the New York Times discussing a scandal or significant malfeasance at Centre for Effective Altruism before end of 2026.
- This is independent of whether I believe the content of the article to be valid.
- Else resolves NO.
- See also: https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s-c10c60e6e5e0
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if an article appears in the New York Times discussing a scandal or significant malfeasance at Centre for Effective Altruism before end of 2026.