Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 66%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète16 déc. 25, 06:45 UTC30 juin 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me?
Manifold Marketswill my friend saúl come out of the closet by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill my friend get back with his ex despite saying he wouldn’t?
Manifold MarketsMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiWill global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?
PolymarketWill UT Austin in-state tuition exceed $11,250 in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
My friend works in tech.
- He’s been working since 2020 and plans to retire next year in SEA because he is sick of work and his boss.
- He has mentioned many times of his desire to retire and that he has the ability to retire in SEA.
- Will he actually retire next year?
- I will resolve YES once if he no longer has his current job(voluntarily or not) before eoy 2026 and does not work for at least 6 months.
- I will update in comments whenever he quits his current job and then it becomes a question of whether he stays out of the job market for 6 months.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CultureKALSHIWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
- Above 4.1 million94%
- Above 4.2 million91%
- Above 4.3 million-2.0pt59%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 40 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,2 k €
KALSHIWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
- No94%
- Yes-3.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 9,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 k €
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 65 million pounds84%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16 k €
- Volume 24h
- 512,8 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt73%
- Yes+2.0pt27%
- Volume total
- 21,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 324,3 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- Significant decrease+19.0pt61.3%
- No significant difference30.2%
- Significant increase-9.9pt8.5%
- Volume total
- 51,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.8 million92%
- Above 1.9 million+1.0pt90%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Will Harvard University rank first overall in 2027?
- Will Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
- 60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will my friend retire in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 66% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will my friend retire in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will my friend retire in 2026? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2027.
- Comment Will my friend retire in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : My friend works in tech.