Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.2%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète15 avr. 26, 18:07 UTC31 déc. 26, 19:06 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will my friend S successfully run a market on manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will my friend and I die in Outward?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if M explicitly states, either verbally or in writing, that he accepts the assertion that he does not annoy me.
- It will resolve to "No" if M explicitly rejects, disagrees with, or denies the assertion that he does not annoy me.
- Because this is a subjective interpersonal matter, the resolution depends on my assessment of the conversation.
- If no such conversation takes place or if M's response remains ambiguous, the market may resolve to "N/A" or be decided based on my best judgment of the interaction.
- This market concerns a personal interpersonal dynamic regarding whether a friend, M, acknowledges or accepts a specific boundary or sentiment regarding his behavior.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+46.0pt95%
- 220-239-11.9pt5%
- 40-590%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 659,9 k €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 23,8 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-17.0pt68%
- No32%
- Volume total
- 3,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 k €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,8 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-6.0pt34%
- Significant increase-31.4pt10%
- Volume total
- 49,8 k €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria