Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?
One-OffSociété et cultureManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.4%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
24 avr. 23, 07:14 UTC31 déc. 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will 0.1% of the US population own a flying car by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the US population be >500M by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the US population exceed 500 million by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill 1% of the US population own a flying car by 2050?
Manifold MarketsDuolingo language rankings · #1 in 2026?
KalshiWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRègles
I will resolve this to positive if at any time before the end of 2050 a survey of US citizens, with a sample size that is descriptive of the whole population, will say that more than 50% of the population, agrees with the sentence "Free Will is an illusion"
