Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68.6%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète4 août 26, 04:42 UTC4 août 36, 04:42 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mitch McConnell outlive Ben Sasse?
Manifold MarketsWill Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
KalshiWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
PolymarketMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?
PolymarketWill Mitch McConnell speak this year?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Neal Dunn dies before Mitch McConnell.
- This market resolves to NO if Mitch McConnell dies before Neal Dunn.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official announcements of death reported by major reputable news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).
- Same-Day Deaths: If both individuals die on the same calendar day, the market will resolve based on the official time of death.
- If the precise sequence of deaths cannot be verified from official reports, the market will resolve to 50%.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? doit être résolu le 4 août 2036.
- Comment Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria