Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.2%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète13 juil. 26, 13:21 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
Manifold MarketsWill Halle Berry and Van Hunt get married by December 31?
PolymarketBill Belichick and Jordon Hudson: Married before 2027?
KalshiWill Lana Del Rey still be married To Jeremy Dufrene at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsMadison Beer and Justin Herbert confirmed married by December 31?
PolymarketDaytime Emmy Awards: Outstanding Daytime Short Form Program
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Meryl Streep (referred to as "Merle Streep" in the prompt) and Martin Short get legally married at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM PT).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Key Rules & Credible Sources:
- Resolution will be based on official statements from the actors' representatives or reports from reputable entertainment news outlets (such as People, The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, or TMZ).
- Announcements of an engagement, moving in together, or continued dating rumors without a legal marriage ceremony occurring in 2026 will not suffice for a YES resolution.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 319,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Merle Streep and Martin Short get married in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Merle Streep and Martin Short get married in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Merle Streep and Martin Short get married in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Merle Streep and Martin Short get married in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria