Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionMoyen-OrientCriminalité et justice2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.3%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard13 mars 26, 22:36 UTC31 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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Like other political movements before it, such as Occupy Wall Street and The Tea Party, will MAGA stop having political influence after the new president takes office?
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by January 2029, MAGA supporters represent more than 20% of the U.S. electorate based on publicly available polling data.
- Resolution will be determined by major polling organizations (Gallup, Pew Research Center, Rasmussen, or similar) that measure self-identification with the MAGA movement.
- If multiple polls exist at the resolution date, the average of the most recent polls will be used.
- The market resolves NO if MAGA support falls to 20% or below.
