Will Keith Rabois win his (not actual) bet against Nate Silver?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.7%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
1 nov. 26, 02:13 UTC4 nov. 26, 02:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Keith Rabois Combo: Republicans win 5+ (TX, IA, KS, AK, MI, OH)
PolymarketWhich Democratic senate candidates will lead in the Nate Silver polling average on election day?
Manifold MarketsWhat price will (Nate) Silver hit in 2026? (read desc.!)
Manifold MarketsWill Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Nate Silver use/reference SquiggleHub or https://www.getguesstimate.com/scratchpad by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if Reps win at least five out of the six following Senate races:
- Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan
- See thread here:
- Keith Rabois (@rabois) on X
- [image][link preview]
