Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 80%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète20 mars 26, 07:38 UTC31 déc. 30, 07:34 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see the opening of his Presidential Center?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see Grand Theft Auto 6?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
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- 54,7 M €
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- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.