Will Joe Biden have a shorter post-presidency than George Washington
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.9%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète13 août 26, 03:24 UTC31 oct. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by which date?
PolymarketWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiWill Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsHow many United States ex-Presidents will attend Joe Biden’s funeral
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Joe Biden has a strictly shorter post-presidency than George Washington.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- George Washington's post-presidency: March 4, 1797, to December 14, 1799 (exactly 1,015 days).
- Joe Biden's post-presidency: Began at noon on January 20, 2025.
- To have a strictly shorter post-presidency than George Washington, Joe Biden must pass away on or before October 31, 2027 (representing 1,014 days or fewer).