Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 85.6%
Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète6 nov. 24, 18:02 UTC22 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be impeached and removed during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill President Trump be impeached during his term?
KalshiWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRègles
JD Vance is vice president-elect of the United States.
- If Donald Trump ceases to be President during 2025-2029 term, JD Vance will be next in line in presidential succession.
- Donald Trump's term office begins 20 Jan 2025, and ends 20 Jan 2029.
- Will JD Vance succeed Trump and become US President during this term of office?
- Becoming acting-president for a brief medical procedure would not count.
- Becoming acting-president by involuntary use of the 25th amendment would count.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will JD Vance become President during Trump’s second term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will JD Vance become President during Trump’s second term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will JD Vance become President during Trump’s second term? doit être résolu le 22 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will JD Vance become President during Trump’s second term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : JD Vance is vice president-elect of the United States.