Will Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineGéopolitiqueMoyen-Orient2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 23 heures
Obsolète20 janv. 26, 07:01 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Israel formally annexes territory comprising at least 15% of Syria's total land area by December 31, 2029.
- For resolution purposes, "annexation" means Israel passes legislation or makes an official declaration claiming sovereignty over the territory, similar to the 1981 Golan Heights Law or the 2019 Trump administration recognition.
- Syria's total area is approximately 185,180 square kilometers, making 15% equal to roughly 27,777 square kilometers.
- Israel currently occupies over 1,700 square kilometers of territory (the 1,200 sq km Golan Heights plus over 500 sq km of additional southwestern Syrian territory), representing approximately 0.9% of Syria's total area.
- Resolution will be determined by official Israeli government statements, legislation, or international recognition of annexation.